Ifwhiteamericatoldthetruthforonedayitsworldwouldfallapart

"If tomorrow the Vietnamese are communists, they will be Vietnamese communists! And this is something you never understood, you Americans."
Hubert de Marais, Apocalypse Now Redux (1979)

Defaced Great Seal of the United States, Wikipedia, 2004

This year marked the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany, and also the 40th anniversary of the capitulation of South Vietnam. A scant thirty year period in which the United States of America went from being unstoppable in the Western hemisphere to crumbling world power. The Vietnam debacle was one of a string of events (the energy crisis, Watergate, stagflation, etc) in the lead up to the US Bicentennial celebrations that put America on much the same stagnant footing as the Soviet Union under Brezhnev. The only reason history is more interested in the Soviet experience is because that state did eventually fall, and in doing so left the US placed for assuming the role of hyperpower. Explaining the decline of American power in the second half of the 20th Century is critically linked to the tumultuous years in South-East Asia.

Wake Up Maggie, I Think I've Got Something to Say to You

(C) Agence France-Presse

Originally I was going to write back in April about Margaret Thatcher on account of her recent cessation of life, but the saturation of media coverage covered most of what could be said. I put the post back to November and planned to use some of the non-domestic events of her premiership as jumping off points for some discussion. That schedule slipped as per the pattern of neglecting to write when work is easy, so here I am in the midst of the Christmas workload (you know, that company that even Thatcher wouldn't privatise) writing two posts back to back. Fortuitously (and this is going to sound terrible), Nelson Mandela died last week. Perhaps this is a good time to follow on from my comparison of Zimbabwe and South Africa, Mugabe and Mandela.

The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political fact.

21 Years in Captivity, Shoes Too Small to Fit His Feet

USSR Post stamp, 1988

I've been in jail longer than Nelson Mandela so maybe you want me to run for president.
-John Mason, The Rock

Quite a while back I made a short reference to the electoral troubles in Zimbabwe and the stature of Nelson Mandela. When Mandela was in hospital in December and there was concern the end might be near, I wondered how it was that he had gone from terrorist to globally respected elder while one-time hero of Africa, Robert Mugabe, had revealed himself to be an autocrat. Both were leaders of post-Apartheid states, but only one has overstayed his welcome. Indeed, I think the real reason Mandela is held so reverentially is not because he single-handedly rescued South Africa from racism, poverty, or any of the other ills it suffers from; but because he honoured the democratic system. His term expired and he stood aside. That he didn't go from liberator to dictator was an extraordinary break with the prevailing historical trend. Quoth Harvey Dent: "You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain". Mandela avoided such a fate, but Mugabe has gone down the Ceauşescu route of being cashiered of his international awards and honours. What I suspect is that there is something fundamental in the histories of these two statesmen and their states that has led to such divergent outcomes.

Ectal 4: Timeless Leaders Stand So Tall

You won't find anyone with anything bad to say about Mandela - he's that great. Though he could have spoken out more against Mugabe, or even against Mbeki. From what I gathered about South Africa from Modern Studies in school, Mbeki pales to Mandela. His AIDS policies have achieved nothing and he is far from politically emotive.

What I'm hearing from Sky News, is that both sides are seeking to reach a peaceful compromise to prevent total collapse in Zimbabwe. To negotiate with Mugabe would require some form of asylum from rights-violation prosecution. He's to far gone to simply step down without receiving immunity. Or are there levels of violation which are acceptable? There is no will for forceful removal. The west is too busy chasing phantoms for its own ends than to be seen to defend justice.

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